Established election irregularities: Doboj and Zvornik as “traditional” centers of election fraud
Analysis of data from polling stations where elections were annulled shows several indicators pointing to serious irregularities, with Doboj and Zvornik standing out as areas where numerous problems were recorded.
- Repeated counting was successful in 110 of the 136 polling stations where the elections were annulled.
- At 60 polling stations discrepancies were found between the results from the polling stations and the results after the recount.
- At least 787 votes are disputed which were “wrongfully” allocated or reduced for candidates.
- Candidate Siniša Karan was unlawfully given at least 447 votes, while candidate Branko Blanuša was unlawfully deprived of at least 260 votes; combined, at those 60 polling stations at least 707 votes were stolen in favor of candidate Siniša Karan.
2) Abnormal turnout and suspicion of identity misuse
- Above-average, two-thirds turnout was recorded at 6 polling stations, with extreme values such as 91.3% and 80.1% at certain polling stations in Doboj, as well as 83% in Lopare and 72.5% in Laktaši.
- Abnormal turnout with statistically significant deviations raises suspicion that identity misuse occurred, i.e. voting on behalf of other persons and adding votes on unused ballots.
- CEC previously announced that at these polling stations 908 persons voted without valid identification documents, and handwriting expertise determined forgery of voter signatures at 107 polling stations.
3) Extremely high support for one candidate
- At 43 out of 136 polling stations one candidate won more than 75% of the votes of those who turned out (in all cases this refers to Siniša Karan).
- Particularly notable are polling stations with results above 90%, including values up to 97.9% in Zvornik and 97.4% in Doboj.
- Above-average number of votes for one candidate, especially in extreme values combined with abnormal turnout, indicates unlawful allocation of votes to one candidate, i.e. vote theft.
4) Unusually high share of invalid ballots at certain polling stations
- Although the total percentage of invalid ballots in these elections was historically low (1.7%), at certain polling stations major deviations were recorded – for example up to 18.7% in Doboj and up to 13.9% in Zvornik.
- Such spikes may indicate deliberate invalidation of valid votes for political opponents.
About the polling stations where elections were annulled: 84,249 voters have the right to vote
Repeated elections are conducted based on the same candidate lists and the same extracts from the Central Voters’ Register used in the annulled elections. In the annulled elections at 136 polling stations, a total of 84,249 voters had the right to vote, while 38,992 of them “voted” (turnout was 46.3%).
The results from these polling stations showed that candidate Siniša Karan (SNSD) had 26,700 votes (70%), candidate Branko Blanuša (SDS) 11,130 votes (29.2%), while all remaining candidates together had 339 votes. 823 ballots were declared invalid. The difference between the two leading candidates at the polling stations where elections were annulled was 15,570 votes.
Why is all this important?
The data indicate that the annulment of the elections is not an isolated incident, but a sign of serious weaknesses in protecting the integrity of elections and the votes of citizen-voters. It is necessary to ensure that the repeated elections are accompanied by strengthened oversight, sanctioning of those responsible, and measures preventing the recurrence of irregularities – from proper voter identification and work of polling station committees, to transparency of vote counting and result processing. Electronic voter identification and ballot scanners planned for the next elections contribute precisely to that.